Oklahoma vs Michigan
Oklahoma visit Michigan in Week 2. The model favors Oklahoma by 0.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Oklahoma 21.7 (10th) against Michigan's 12.2 (26th), a gap that projects Oklahoma by 7.1 points. Model win probability sits at 67% Oklahoma, 33% Michigan. The consensus line of Michigan +5.5 implies 63/37, and the ProphetX exchange leans further, with Oklahoma -215 (68%) against Michigan +200 (33%). Model and exchange are effectively aligned; the market line is a touch softer on Oklahoma, pricing slightly more of a Michigan chance than SP+ does.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Oklahoma pairs the #16 offense with the #5 defense, while Michigan counters with the #45 offense and #17 defense. That defensive strength on both sides caps the projection: the market total sits at 43.5. Series history is thin but one-sided, with Oklahoma taking the only prior meeting 24-13 in 2025.
Early results cut both ways. Oklahoma opened with a 51-0 win over UTEP; Michigan survived Western Michigan 13-12. Season simulations give Oklahoma 7.5 projected wins and a 32.9% Playoff chance against Michigan's 6.6 wins and 7.7%.
Model, market and exchange all price Oklahoma a clear favorite, and the ratings gap backs them.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oklahoma's win price; Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oklahoma is favored, below it Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oklahoma vs Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oklahoma vs Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oklahoma and Michigan play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oklahoma by 0.1 (50% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oklahoma lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →