UTEP vs Michigan
UTEP visit Michigan in Week 3. The model favors Michigan by 37.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market read this the same way at the top line: SP+ rates Michigan 13.8 (25th) against UTEP at -16.2 (123rd), a 30-point ratings chasm that both sides convert to a 98% Michigan win probability. The disagreement is only in degree. SP+ projects Michigan by 32.4, while the consensus of two books sets the line at 35.2, pricing the favorite 2.8 points steeper than the model's margin. The posted total sits at 49.
The unit ranks frame that gap. Michigan grades 42nd on offense and 13th on defense; UTEP sits 122nd and 116th. Results add nuance in both directions. UTEP was shut out 51-0 at Oklahoma before hanging 51 on Texas Southern, so the sample splits by opponent tier. Michigan has won without separation, 13-12 over Western Michigan and 17-10 over Oklahoma, which sits closer to the total than to the spread.
The season simulations keep the two on different planes. Michigan projects to 7.5 wins with a 12.5% Playoff chance and 0.7% title odds, against a 1.1% market title price. UTEP projects to 4.3 wins with 0% Playoff and 0% title equity across 10,000 runs.
Model and market lock at 98% Michigan, splitting only on margin: SP+ says 32.4, the line says 35.2.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UTEP's win price; Michigan's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UTEP is favored, below it Michigan is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UTEP vs Michigan game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UTEP vs Michigan market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UTEP and Michigan play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Michigan.
Who is favored?
The model projects Michigan by 37.2 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →