Redshirt
Matchup preview

Texas vs Oklahoma

Texas meet Oklahoma in Week 6. The model favors Texas by 6.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
65%
35%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
TEX -6
Total (O/U)
48.5
Favorite
TEX
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#6SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#16
#11FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#15
1926EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1810
12.3%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.6%
TexasOklahomasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Oklahoma lead 8-5
Texas have won the last 2
20172025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
23-6
Texas
neutral site
2024
34-3
Texas
neutral site
2023
34-30
Oklahoma
neutral site
2022
49-0
Texas
neutral site
2021
55-48
Oklahoma
neutral site
2020
53-45
Oklahoma
neutral site
2019
34-27
Oklahoma
neutral site
2018
48-45
Texas
neutral site
2018
39-27
Oklahoma
neutral site
2017
29-24
Oklahoma
neutral site
2016
45-40
Oklahoma
neutral site
2015
24-17
Texas
neutral site
2014
31-26
Oklahoma
neutral site
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Texas vs Oklahoma game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas vs Oklahoma market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Texas and Oklahoma play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at a neutral site.

Who is favored?

The model projects Texas by 6.5 (65% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Oklahoma lead 8-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →