Texas vs Oklahoma
Texas meet Oklahoma in Week 6. The model favors Texas by 10.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Texas seventh at 22.4 against Oklahoma's 12.8 (27th), a gap that projects Texas by 9.6 on a neutral field and a 72 percent win probability. The market sits a touch lighter: Oklahoma +7.5 implies 32 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices the Sooners at +300, roughly 25 percent, against Texas -310 at 76 percent. The model and the exchange effectively agree on the favorite's grip; the consensus line is the mild outlier, leaving a few points of daylight for traders who trust the rating edge.
The unit splits explain the spread. Both defenses rank fifth, but the offenses diverge hard: Texas 16th, Oklahoma 75th. That mismatch, paired with a projected total of 39.3, frames a low-scoring game where Texas is expected to be the side that moves the ball. Results reinforce the profile: Texas is unbeaten with wins over Ohio State 24-23 and at Tennessee 20-17, while Oklahoma has banked blowouts of UTEP 51-0 and dropped both road tests, losing at Michigan 17-10 and at Georgia 41-13.
Season outlooks stay wide apart: Texas projects 9.2 wins and 50.9 percent to reach the Playoff, Oklahoma 6 wins and 5.6 percent. The series favors Oklahoma 8-5 overall, but Texas took the last meeting 23-6 in 2025.
Model and exchange both plant Texas near 75 percent; the +7.5 consensus is the soft spot against a clear ratings and offense edge.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Texas's win price; Oklahoma's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Texas is favored, below it Oklahoma is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Texas vs Oklahoma game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas vs Oklahoma market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Texas and Oklahoma play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas by 10.1 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oklahoma lead 8-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →