Texas vs Missouri
Texas visit Missouri in Week 10. The model favors Texas by 3.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit close but not identical. SP+ rates Texas 20.4 (eighth) against Missouri 14.2 (eighteenth), a 6.2-point gap that projects Texas by 3.8 and assigns a 59 percent win probability. The consensus line is tighter at Missouri +2.5 with a 42.8 total, implying Texas 56 percent, and the ProphetX exchange matches at Texas -129 to Missouri +126. The three-point spread between model and market price is the only real disagreement, and it leans Texas.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Texas pairs the seventh-rated defense with the sixteenth offense, while Missouri counters with the eleventh defense but only the forty-second offense. That mismatch, Texas defense against a lagging Missouri attack, drives the projected margin. Form is mixed: Texas is 6-2 with wins over Ohio State 24-23 and at Tennessee 20-17 against losses at Oklahoma and to Florida by 27-24 each, while Missouri is 6-2 with a 45-17 rout of Florida and a 27-6 win over Texas A&M offset by a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss.
Season context separates the two: Texas projects 8.4 wins with a 39.3 percent Playoff shot, Missouri 7.9 wins and 14.7 percent. The only prior meeting, 2017, went to Texas 33-16.
The model and market both tilt Texas near 56 to 59 percent, with the ratings edge resting on Texas defense against a middling Missouri offense.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Texas's win price; Missouri's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Texas is favored, below it Missouri is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Texas vs Missouri game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas vs Missouri market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Texas and Missouri play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Missouri.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas by 3.8 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Texas lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →