Florida vs Texas
Florida visit Texas in Week 7. The model favors Texas by 12.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes Texas a comfortable favorite, rating the Longhorns 24.4 (6th) against Florida's 11 (31st) and projecting a 15.8-point margin with an 83% win probability. The market is far more cautious: the consensus line of Texas -10.7 implies 74%, and the ProphetX exchange sits at 79% (Texas -375) versus Florida's 22% (+360). That gap between an 83% model read and a 74% market read is the core disagreement, with roughly five points of projected margin separating the two.
The unit splits explain the spread. Texas pairs the 16th-ranked offense with the 2nd-ranked defense, while Florida's 18th offense is dragged down by a 58th defense. That edge shows in the resumes: Texas is 4-1 with a 24-23 win over Ohio State and a 20-17 win at Tennessee, its only loss 24-27 at Oklahoma. Florida is 4-2, blending a 52-28 win over Ole Miss with losses of 17-45 at Missouri and 19-38 to South Carolina.
Context cuts against the chalk. The series is 1-1, and the last meeting in 2025 went to Florida 29-21. Season-long, Texas projects 8.8 wins with a 52.9% Playoff chance; Florida projects 6.7 wins and 3.8%. The total is set at 51.5.
Model likes Texas more than the market does, and Florida's defense and road losses back the gap, though the 2025 upset lingers.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida's win price; Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida is favored, below it Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida vs Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida vs Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida and Texas play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas by 12.2 (77% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →