Texas vs Tennessee
Texas visit Tennessee in Week 4. The model favors Texas by 1.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this a near coin flip with Texas nudged ahead: ratings of 24.1 (sixth) to 20.2 (tenth), a 54% Texas win probability and a projected margin of 1.5 points. The market disagrees on degree, not direction. Consensus pricing of Tennessee +4.5 implies 61% for Texas, and the ProphetX exchange stretches further to Texas -194, an implied 66%. That is a 12-point gap between the model's 54% and the exchange's 66%, the widest disagreement on the board.
The unit ranks explain the tension. Texas grades out balanced, eighth on both offense and defense, while Tennessee pairs the third-ranked offense with a 34th-ranked defense. A total of 55.8 fits that profile. Both teams enter 3-0: Texas survived Ohio State 24-23 and handled Texas State 59-7 and UTSA 30-6, while Tennessee posted 56-9, 45-24 at Georgia Tech, and 42-9.
Season-long simulations keep Texas marginally clearer, 8.7 projected wins and 50.5% Playoff odds against Tennessee's 8.4 and 36%. Title markets price Texas at 12.3% versus the model's 5.6%, and Tennessee at 1.2% versus 2.9%.
Model and market agree Texas is favored, but the exchange's 66% runs 12 points hot against SP+'s 54%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Texas's win price; Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Texas is favored, below it Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Texas vs Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas vs Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Texas and Tennessee play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas by 1.5 (54% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →