Texas State vs Texas
Texas State visit Texas in Week 1. The model favors Texas by 27. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the consensus market land close on Texas. SP+ rates Texas 22.8 (sixth) against Texas State's -2.1 (77th), a 24.9-point separation that projects to a 27.3-point Texas margin. The two books push slightly further, hanging Texas -29.5 with a 59.8 total. Win probabilities nearly converge: model 95% Texas, market-implied 96%, leaving little daylight on either the spread or the moneyline.
Unit ranks explain the size of the gap. Texas pairs the ninth-ranked offense with the tenth-ranked defense, a balanced profile. Texas State's 16th-ranked offense is dragged down by a 124th-ranked defense, and that defensive hole is the lever the projected margin leans on most heavily.
The ProphetX exchange diverges sharply, posting Texas State -8000 (99%) against Texas +3200 (3%), inverting both the model and the consensus and marking the thin exchange as the clear outlier. Season simulations separate the programs: Texas projects 7.7 wins, 40.2% to make the Playoff and 4.4% to win the title against 9.7% market title odds, while Texas State projects 5.9 wins and 0.2% Playoff.
Model and consensus market align tightly on a Texas blowout near four scores; only the thin ProphetX exchange prints an inverted, outlier read.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Texas State's win price; Texas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Texas State is favored, below it Texas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 17.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Texas State vs Texas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas State vs Texas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Texas State and Texas play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Texas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas by 27 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →