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Matchup preview

Boston College vs Notre Dame

Boston College visit Notre Dame in Week 11. The model favors Notre Dame by 29.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
4%
96%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Boston College4%-2 ptsvsNotre Dame96%+2 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Boston College favoredNotre Dame favoredNov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Boston College's win price; Notre Dame's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Boston College is favored, below it Notre Dame is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#78SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#4
#88FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#3
1359EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2243
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.15.8%
Boston CollegeNotre Damesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Notre Dame lead 6-0
Notre Dame have won the last 6
20152025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
25-10
Notre Dame
at Boston College
2022
44-0
Notre Dame
at Notre Dame
2020
45-31
Notre Dame
at Boston College
2019
40-7
Notre Dame
at Notre Dame
2017
49-20
Notre Dame
at Boston College
2015
19-16
Notre Dame
neutral site
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Boston College vs Notre Dame game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Boston College vs Notre Dame market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Boston College and Notre Dame play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Notre Dame.

Who is favored?

The model projects Notre Dame by 29.1 (96% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Notre Dame lead 6-0 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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