Notre Dame vs Purdue
Notre Dame visit Purdue in Week 4. The model favors Notre Dame by 26.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market are locked in agreement here. SP+ rates Notre Dame at 26.7 (third nationally) against Purdue at -2.1 (75th), a gap that projects a 26.4-point Notre Dame margin. The consensus line sits at Purdue +27.8 with a 58.3 total, and both the model and the market price Notre Dame at 95% to win. The ProphetX exchange pushes slightly further, with Notre Dame offered at -3100 (97% implied) versus Purdue at +2000. There is no daylight between the rating gap and the price.
The unit ranks explain the spread: Notre Dame grades fourth on offense and sixth on defense, while Purdue sits 61st and 97th. Series history reinforces the direction, with Notre Dame holding a 4-0 edge and a 56-30 win in the 2025 meeting.
Results this season track the ratings. Notre Dame is unbeaten, having handled Wisconsin 41-13, Rice 52-0 and Michigan State 27-10. Purdue beat Indiana State 44-19 but fell to Wake Forest 38-36 and at UCLA 52-38. The simulation projects 10.2 wins and a 74.8% Playoff chance for Notre Dame against 3.4 wins and 0.1% for Purdue.
Model and market fully agree: Notre Dame at 95% with a 26.4-point projected margin, and the numbers back the price.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Notre Dame's win price; Purdue's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Notre Dame is favored, below it Purdue is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Notre Dame vs Purdue game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Notre Dame vs Purdue market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Notre Dame and Purdue play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Purdue.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 26.4 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →