Notre Dame vs North Carolina
Notre Dame visit North Carolina in Week 5. The model favors Notre Dame by 16.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these programs by 25.1 rating points, ranking Notre Dame 3rd at 28.1 against North Carolina 60th at 3, and projects the Irish by 22.7. The market is close behind: North Carolina +21 with a 47.3 total, implying 90% for Notre Dame against the model's 92%. The ProphetX exchange sits fractionally higher, offering Notre Dame -1400 (93%) versus North Carolina +1150 (8%). Three independent reads clustering inside three points of win probability leaves no meaningful disagreement to trade against.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Notre Dame pairs the 4th offense with the 2nd defense, while North Carolina brings the 88th offense and a more respectable 34th defense. That defensive number is the one edge on the board, and it aligns with the 47.3 total sitting well below Notre Dame's output in wins of 41-13, 52-0, 27-10 and 49-10. The Irish have not been tested; North Carolina's resume is a 15-10 win at TCU, a 35-3 win over East Tennessee State and a 20-28 loss at Clemson.
Season-long context reinforces the same order. Notre Dame projects to 10.4 wins with 81.5% Playoff odds and an 11.5% title number against a market 11.9%, while North Carolina projects to 5.4 wins, 0.5% to reach the Playoff and 0% to 0.8% for the title. The model and the market are effectively priced together at every horizon.
Model and market both price a lopsided Notre Dame road win, and the ratings gap and early results give the exchange little to argue with.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Notre Dame's win price; North Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Notre Dame is favored, below it North Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Notre Dame vs North Carolina game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Notre Dame vs North Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Notre Dame and North Carolina play?
Week 5 of 2026, on Oct 3, 2026 at North Carolina.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 16.7 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 5-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →