Stanford vs Notre Dame
Stanford visit Notre Dame in Week 6. The model favors Notre Dame by 38.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market move in lockstep here. SP+ rates Notre Dame 28.1 (third) against Stanford at -8.4 (102nd), a 36.5-point separation, and projects the Irish by 38.9. The consensus line of Notre Dame -38.2 sits within a point of that projection, and both the model and the market-implied figure land on 99% for Notre Dame and 1% for Stanford. There is no disagreement to trade against at the top line; the price is the read.
The unit ranks explain the chasm: Notre Dame grades fourth on offense and second on defense, Stanford 98th on both sides. The series tilts Notre Dame 7-4, and the most recent meeting in 2025 went to the Irish 49-20, consistent with the projected margin. Season title odds offer the only daylight, with the simulation at 11.2% against a market 9.9%, while the Playoff projection sits at 83.3%.
Results reinforce the gap. Notre Dame is 5-0, winning by scores of 41-13, 52-0, 27-10, 49-10 and 37-26, a projected 10.6-win profile. Stanford is 2-3 with blowout losses of 6-45, 7-35 and 3-57, projecting 4.2 wins, 0% to reach the Playoff. With the total at 54.5, the number implies a one-sided scoreline rather than a contest.
SP+ and the market both price Notre Dame at 99%, and the ratings gap of 36.5 points leaves no daylight between model and consensus.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Stanford's win price; Notre Dame's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Stanford is favored, below it Notre Dame is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Stanford vs Notre Dame game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Stanford vs Notre Dame market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Stanford and Notre Dame play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Notre Dame.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 38.4 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 7-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →