Rice vs Notre Dame
Rice visit Notre Dame in Week 2. The model favors Notre Dame by 44. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Notre Dame rates 26.8 (third), Rice sits at -10.4 (105th), a gap that yields a projected Notre Dame margin of 39.6 and a 99% model win probability. The market pushes further, pricing Notre Dame at -44.5 with the implied win probability rounded to 100%. That leaves the consensus line roughly five points steeper than the model projection: the rare case where model and market agree on the outcome but diverge on the scale.
The unit ranks reinforce the direction. Notre Dame's offense ranks first and its defense seventh, while Rice counters with an offense at 115 and a defense at 96. Early results fit the profile: Notre Dame handled Wisconsin 41-13, and Rice beat Houston Christian 31-3. With the total set at 55.3, the pricing expects Notre Dame to supply most of the scoring. Season simulations widen the divide, projecting Notre Dame to 9.9 wins and a 72.5% Playoff chance against Rice's 5.3 wins and 0.2%.
Series history is thin: Notre Dame leads 1-0, the only prior meeting a 48-17 result in 2014, roughly the blowout both the model and the market anticipate again.
Model and market agree on a Notre Dame rout; the only gap is scale, with the -44.5 line about five points past the projected 39.6 margin.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Rice's win price; Notre Dame's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Rice is favored, below it Notre Dame is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Rice vs Notre Dame game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Rice vs Notre Dame market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Rice and Notre Dame play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Notre Dame.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 44 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →