Notre Dame vs Navy
Notre Dame meet Navy in Week 9. The model favors Notre Dame by 26.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Notre Dame rates 25.2 and ranks fourth nationally, Navy sits at -1.6 and 80th, a gap of nearly 27 rating points. The model lands on a 26.8-point Notre Dame margin and a 95% win probability. The consensus across two books is more severe, pricing Navy at +30.5 with an implied 3% chance, so the market stretches the spread four points past the projection while splitting hairs on win odds. The total is set at 56.8.
The unit grades reinforce the direction: Notre Dame ranks third on offense and eighth on defense, while Navy checks in at 52nd and 101st, with the defense the clear liability. Series history is one-sided at 10-1 for Notre Dame, and the 2025 meeting ended 49-10. Results track the ratings: Notre Dame is 6-1 with blowouts over Rice (52-0) and Stanford (58-7) and only a 24-28 loss at BYU, whereas Navy is 2-5 since beating Towson, including losses to Air Force (9-14) and North Texas (39-49).
Season context widens the divide. Notre Dame projects to 9.9 wins with a 75.4% Playoff probability and a 9.4% title chance by simulation, against 12.6% title odds in the market. Navy projects to 4.4 wins with 0% Playoff and title equity, leaving nothing in this contract beyond the margin itself, where the model sits four points short of the market number.
Model and market both bury Navy; the only live question is whether Notre Dame clears a 30.5 spread the projection sets closer to 26.8.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Notre Dame's win price; Navy's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Notre Dame is favored, below it Navy is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Notre Dame vs Navy game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Notre Dame vs Navy market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Notre Dame and Navy play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 26.8 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 10-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →