Wisconsin vs Notre Dame
Wisconsin meet Notre Dame in Week 1. The model favors Notre Dame by 21.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams sharply: Notre Dame rates 26.5 (third) against Wisconsin's 3.8 (54th), a gap that drives a 22.7-point projected margin and a 92 percent Irish win probability. The market sits close but a touch softer, pricing Notre Dame at minus 20.5 with an 89 percent implied edge. That roughly two-point spread between the model margin and the line is the only meaningful disagreement on the board, and it leans Notre Dame.
The unit ranks explain the price. Notre Dame pairs the third-ranked offense with the ninth-ranked defense, while Wisconsin's 100th-ranked offense faces the tougher assignment against a top-ten unit. Wisconsin's defense (20th) is the one credential that travels on this neutral field, but that alone caps the upset path rather than opening one.
Season context reinforces the tiers: Notre Dame projects to 9.8 wins with a 73.5 percent Playoff chance and 9.1 percent title odds, just under the market's 11 percent, against Wisconsin's 5.8 wins and 1.7 percent Playoff odds. The lone prior meeting, a 41-13 Notre Dame win in 2021, fits the same script. Model and market align on a comfortable Irish favorite.
Model and market both make Notre Dame a heavy favorite, and the ratings gap leaves little room for a Wisconsin case.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wisconsin's win price; Notre Dame's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wisconsin is favored, below it Notre Dame is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wisconsin and Notre Dame play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 6, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Notre Dame by 21.6 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Notre Dame lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →