Redshirt
Matchup preview

Michigan State vs Notre Dame

Michigan State visit Notre Dame in Week 3. The model favors Notre Dame by 26.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
5%
95%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 3 books
Spread
ND -28.7
Total (O/U)
51.5
Favorite
ND
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Michigan State1%-14 ptsvsNotre Dame99%+14 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Michigan State favoredNotre Dame favoredJun 22Jul 12Jul 26Aug 10Aug 25Sep 8Sep 20

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Michigan State's win price; Notre Dame's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Michigan State is favored, below it Notre Dame is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#65SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#3
#66FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#3
1409EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2243
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.10.7%
Michigan StateNotre Damesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20162017
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2017
38-18
Notre Dame
at Michigan State
2016
36-28
Michigan State
at Notre Dame
More Week 3 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Michigan State vs Notre Dame game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan State vs Notre Dame market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Michigan State and Notre Dame play?

Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Notre Dame.

Who is favored?

The model projects Notre Dame by 26.8 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →