San Diego State vs UCLA
San Diego State visit UCLA in Week 2. The model favors UCLA by 13.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by roughly six points of rating, UCLA at 9.2 (36th) against San Diego State at 3.1 (58th), and turns that gap into a projected UCLA margin of 8.5 and a 70% win probability. The market sits well ahead of the model: UCLA -12.5 with a total of 54.8 implies 78%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to 81% on the UCLA -440 offer against San Diego State +400. That is an eight-to-eleven point spread of disagreement between a model margin of 8.5 and a market number of 12.5, so the value, if any, tilts toward the underdog side.
The unit ranks explain the lean. UCLA grades better on offense (#31 to #72) while the defensive edge is narrow (#46 to #51), pointing to a game the favorite controls through scoring rather than stops. Series history is thin at 1-1, but the last meeting in 2023 went UCLA 35-10, matching the market's confidence more than the model's. Early results offer little separation: San Diego State handled Portland State 53-20, UCLA won at California 45-24, and season projections nearly tie at 7.1 and 7 wins with similar sub-1% title odds.
The read is a market that has priced UCLA four points past where SP+ values them, leaving the closest edge on San Diego State plus the points.
Model backs UCLA by 8.5 while the market demands 12.5, and that four-point gap is the only real edge, favoring San Diego State against the spread.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as San Diego State's win price; UCLA's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line San Diego State is favored, below it UCLA is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the San Diego State vs UCLA game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the San Diego State vs UCLA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do San Diego State and UCLA play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at UCLA.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCLA by 13.9 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →