UCLA vs Oregon
UCLA visit Oregon in Week 6. The model favors Oregon by 5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big Ten sides by 7.8 rating points, Oregon eighth at 21.6 against UCLA 24th at 13.8, and projects Oregon by 10.2. The market sits a touch firmer at Oregon -11.5, and the implied win probabilities line up closely: the model gives Oregon 73 percent, the consensus 76 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices Oregon at -380, or 79 percent, with UCLA +365 at 22 percent. That clustering leaves little daylight between model and market, with the exchange shading slightly more toward Oregon than SP+ warrants.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Oregon's offense ranks fifth to UCLA's 16th, while UCLA's defense at 40th is the softest unit on the board against an Oregon side that has posted 84-0 and 41-27 lines. UCLA counters with a 16th offense that hung 52 on Purdue and 54 at Maryland, but the 40th defense is the lever the projection pulls. Series history reinforces the lean: Oregon holds a 6-1 edge and won the 2024 meeting 34-13.
UCLA arrives 4-0, Oregon 3-1 with a lone loss at Oklahoma State 31-39. The total of 58.8 fits both offenses. Season-long, Oregon projects 8.2 wins and 39.1 percent Playoff odds to UCLA's 8.7 and 19.5 percent.
Model and market agree tightly on Oregon near 11, with the exchange's 79 percent the only reading leaning past SP+.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCLA's win price; Oregon's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCLA is favored, below it Oregon is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCLA vs Oregon game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCLA vs Oregon market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCLA and Oregon play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Oregon.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon by 5 (62% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oregon lead 6-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →