Michigan State vs UCLA
Michigan State visit UCLA in Week 8. The model favors UCLA by 19.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by more than 15 points of rating, pricing UCLA at 14 (rank 19) against Michigan State at -1.1 (rank 79). That gap drives a projected UCLA margin of 17.5 and an 86% win probability. The consensus market is a touch softer at UCLA -14 with an 80% implied win probability, and the ProphetX exchange splits the difference, posting UCLA -550 (85%) against Michigan State +500 (17%). The model sits 3.5 points north of the market line.
The unit ranks reinforce the direction. UCLA grades out at #38 on offense and #21 on defense, while Michigan State sits at #91 and #68. Form matches the ratings: UCLA is 6-0, including 17-15 at Oregon and 17-7 over Wisconsin, whereas Michigan State is 2-5, with the only wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan and losses as lopsided as 3-31 at Wisconsin. The lone series meeting, UCLA 38-13 in 2025, fits the pattern.
Season simulations widen the chasm: UCLA projects to 9.9 wins with 32.8% Playoff odds, Michigan State to 3.6 wins with 0%. The total is set at 44.8.
Model, market and exchange all land on UCLA as a heavy favorite, with SP+ the most emphatic at 17.5 points.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Michigan State's win price; UCLA's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Michigan State is favored, below it UCLA is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Michigan State vs UCLA game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Michigan State vs UCLA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Michigan State and UCLA play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at UCLA.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCLA by 19.8 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
UCLA lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →