UCLA vs California
UCLA visit California in Week 1. The model favors UCLA by 5.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a dead heat: UCLA rates 5.4 (46th) against California's 3 (60th), yet the projected margin rounds to zero and win probability splits 50/50. The market disagrees only marginally, pricing California at +1.8 with a 46% implied chance and tilting UCLA to 54%. The ProphetX exchange echoes that lean, offering UCLA at -116 (54%) and California at +111 (47%). In short, both the model and the market see a near toss-up, with the pricing giving UCLA the thinnest of edges over the model's even split.
Unit ranks favor UCLA on both sides of the ball: its offense (48th) and defense (51st) each grade ahead of California's offense (52nd) and defense (64th), the Bears' softest number. That defensive gap is the clearest edge in an otherwise tight profile, and it fits a 53.8 total. Season simulations keep the teams neighbors, projecting 5.9 wins for UCLA and 6 for California, each at 0.1% to win the title and roughly 2 to 3% to reach the Playoff.
Series history leans UCLA, which holds a 7-3 all-time lead and took the last meeting in 2023 by 33-7. That result is the lone lopsided data point in a matchup the numbers otherwise call even.
A genuine coin flip on the model, with the market and exchange both leaning UCLA by a razor's edge.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCLA's win price; California's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCLA is favored, below it California is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCLA vs California game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCLA vs California market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCLA and California play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 6, 2026 at California.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCLA by 5.8 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
UCLA lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →