UCLA vs Maryland
UCLA visit Maryland in Week 4. The model favors Maryland by 1.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The ratings gap is negligible: SP+ puts UCLA at 9 (rank 40) and Maryland at 7.9 (rank 43), a projected Maryland margin of just 1.3 points. That yields a near-even model split, Maryland 53% to UCLA 47%. The market disagrees on direction: the consensus line of Maryland +1.5 and ProphetX offers of UCLA -110 and Maryland +104 imply UCLA around 52% to 54%. Two thin edges pointing opposite ways define this contract.
Unit ranks favor UCLA on offense (#29 versus #50) while Maryland grades better on defense (#45 versus #53), and the total sits at 56.8. Form tilts UCLA as well: a 3-0 mark with wins at California 45-24, over San Diego State 28-10, and over Purdue 52-38, against Maryland's 2-1, where a 62-0 rout of Hampton and a 38-14 win at UConn precede a 26-35 home loss to Virginia Tech. The lone series meeting went UCLA 20-17 in 2025.
Season projections back the road side too, with UCLA at 7.5 wins and 6.6% Playoff odds against Maryland's 6.1 wins and 2.4%.
A coin-flip on paper, but model and market split sides, with SP+ leaning Maryland and the price leaning UCLA.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCLA's win price; Maryland's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCLA is favored, below it Maryland is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCLA vs Maryland game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCLA vs Maryland market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCLA and Maryland play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Maryland.
Who is favored?
The model projects Maryland by 1.3 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
UCLA lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →