UCLA vs Minnesota
UCLA visit Minnesota in Week 10. The model favors UCLA by 8.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big Ten sides by 10.5 points, rating UCLA 14.4 (17th) against Minnesota 3.9 (57th), and projects UCLA by 8.1. The model gives UCLA a 69% win probability, ahead of the market-implied 63% off Minnesota +5.5 and the ProphetX exchange at 66% (UCLA -196). All three agree on the favorite, with the model the most committed to the road side by roughly six points.
The unit splits frame the gap. UCLA pairs the 38th offense with the 19th defense, while Minnesota leans on its 27th defense to offset a 93rd-ranked offense. That defense-only profile fits a low total of 39.5. Series history is thin and cuts the other way: Minnesota holds a 1-0 edge, having won the 2024 meeting 21-17.
Results back the ratings. UCLA enters 8-0, including road wins at Oregon 17-15 and Maryland 54-3. Minnesota is 5-3, with losses to Mississippi State, Purdue and Indiana by 25, 28 and 7, and a title-run projection of 6.5 wins against UCLA's 10.3 and 43.4% Playoff odds.
The model prices UCLA a touch higher than the market and exchange, but all three land on the same favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCLA's win price; Minnesota's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCLA is favored, below it Minnesota is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCLA vs Minnesota game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCLA vs Minnesota market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCLA and Minnesota play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Minnesota.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCLA by 8.1 (69% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Minnesota lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →