Redshirt
Matchup preview

USC vs UCLA

USC visit UCLA in Week 13. The model favors USC by 10.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
73%
27%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
USC -10.5
Total (O/U)
55.5
Favorite
USC
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
USC
74%
UCLA
26%

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#8SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#40
#13FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#75
1871EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1322
1.6%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
USCUCLAsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
USC lead 8-4
USC have won the last 2
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
29-10
USC
at USC
2024
19-13
USC
at UCLA
2023
38-20
UCLA
at USC
2022
48-45
USC
at UCLA
2021
62-33
UCLA
at USC
2020
43-38
USC
at UCLA
2019
52-35
USC
at USC
2018
34-27
UCLA
at UCLA
2017
28-23
USC
at USC
2016
36-14
USC
at UCLA
2015
40-21
USC
at USC
2014
38-20
UCLA
at UCLA
More Week 13 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the USC vs UCLA game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the USC vs UCLA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do USC and UCLA play?

Week 13 of 2026, on Nov 28, 2026 at UCLA.

Who is favored?

The model projects USC by 10.2 (73% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

USC lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

Trade this game
Code VAULT: trade $10, get $20
ProphetX →