Nevada vs UCLA
Nevada visit UCLA in Week 9. The model favors UCLA by 19.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear gap: UCLA at 14.4 (rank 17) against Nevada at -3.1 (rank 89), a 17.5-point rating spread that produces a projected UCLA margin of 19.9 and an 89% model win probability. The market leans harder in the same direction. The consensus line sets UCLA -22.7 with a 44.5 total and a 92% implied win probability, and the ProphetX exchange prices UCLA at -1550 (94%) against Nevada +1400 (7%). That leaves the model roughly three points softer on UCLA than the number traders are paying, the main disagreement to track.
The unit ranks support the one-sided read. UCLA pairs the #38 offense with the #19 defense, while Nevada brings the #107 offense and a middling #55 defense. Results reinforce it: UCLA is unbeaten across seven games, including 17-15 at Oregon, 17-7 over Wisconsin, and a 54-3 result at Maryland. Nevada sits at 3-4, with a 49-14 win over Western Kentucky but losses as narrow as 33-36 to Air Force and 20-27 at Middle Tennessee.
Season projections widen the separation: UCLA is modeled for 10.1 wins with 39.8% Playoff odds and 1.7% title equity against a 1.1% market price, while Nevada projects to 5.4 wins, 0.1% Playoff, and 0% title. The market is pricing the floor; the model sees a touchdown less of cushion.
Model and market both back UCLA heavily, but the line's 22.7 sits nearly three points above SP+'s 19.9 projection.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Nevada's win price; UCLA's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Nevada is favored, below it UCLA is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Nevada vs UCLA game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Nevada vs UCLA market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Nevada and UCLA play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at UCLA.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCLA by 19.9 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →