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Matchup preview

Texas A&M vs Alabama

Texas A&M visit Alabama in Week 8. The model favors Alabama by 3.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
41%
59%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
ALA -2.5
Total (O/U)
54.5
Favorite
ALA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#14SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#11
#12FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#10
1872EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1857
0.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.1.6%
Texas A&MAlabamasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Alabama lead 9-1
Alabama have won the last 2
20142023
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2023
26-20
Alabama
at Texas A&M
2022
24-20
Alabama
at Alabama
2021
41-38
Texas A&M
at Texas A&M
2020
52-24
Alabama
at Alabama
2019
47-28
Alabama
at Texas A&M
2018
45-23
Alabama
at Alabama
2017
27-19
Alabama
at Texas A&M
2016
33-14
Alabama
at Alabama
2015
41-23
Alabama
at Texas A&M
2014
59-0
Alabama
at Alabama
More Week 8 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Texas A&M vs Alabama game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas A&M vs Alabama market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Texas A&M and Alabama play?

Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Alabama.

Who is favored?

The model projects Alabama by 3.6 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Alabama lead 9-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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