Redshirt
Matchup preview

Tennessee vs Texas A&M

Tennessee visit Texas A&M in Week 11. The model favors Texas A&M by 0.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
49%
51%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
TA&M -8.5
Total (O/U)
55.5
Favorite
TA&M
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#10SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#14
#19FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#12
1787EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1872
1.2%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.8%
TennesseeTexas A&Msolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Texas A&M lead 2-1
20162023
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2023
20-13
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2020
34-13
Texas A&M
at Tennessee
2016
45-38
Texas A&M
at Texas A&M
More Week 11 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Tennessee vs Texas A&M game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tennessee vs Texas A&M market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Tennessee and Texas A&M play?

Week 11 of 2026, on Nov 14, 2026 at Texas A&M.

Who is favored?

The model projects Texas A&M by 0.5 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Texas A&M lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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