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Matchup preview

Texas A&M vs Missouri

Texas A&M visit Missouri in Week 6. The model favors Missouri by 6.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
34%
66%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ separates these SEC teams by 4.8 points, rating Missouri 13.7 (25th) against Texas A&M's 8.9 (39th), and projects the Tigers by 7.2 with a 67% win probability. The market is more cautious: Missouri -3.5 with a 48.5 total implies 58%, and the ProphetX exchange sits between at 62% (Missouri -160, Texas A&M +158 for 39%). That gap, model 67% versus market 58%, puts the edge on Missouri, with the projected 7.2-point margin running roughly twice the consensus spread.

The unit splits favor the home side: Missouri's defense ranks 14th to Texas A&M's 44th, while the offenses sit close together at 40th and 38th. Series history cuts the other way, with Texas A&M holding a 3-1 edge and winning the 2025 meeting 38-17. Results add nuance: Missouri is 4-1 with a 45-17 win over Florida but a loss at Mississippi State 24-31, while Texas A&M is 3-2, beating Arkansas 34-7 but losing at LSU 6-35 and to Kentucky 21-31. Season simulations give Missouri 7.6 projected wins and 11% Playoff odds to the Aggies' 6.2 and 2%.

Model and exchange both lean Missouri harder than the -3.5 line, with a 14th-ranked defense backing a projected 7.2-point edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
MIZ -4.5
Total (O/U)
50.5
Favorite
MIZ
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#34SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#18
#12FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#22
1872EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1750
0.4%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
Texas A&MMissourisolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Texas A&M lead 3-1
Texas A&M have won the last 3
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
38-17
Texas A&M
at Missouri
2024
41-10
Texas A&M
at Texas A&M
2021
35-14
Texas A&M
at Missouri
2014
34-27
Missouri
at Texas A&M
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Texas A&M vs Missouri game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Texas A&M vs Missouri market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Texas A&M and Missouri play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Missouri.

Who is favored?

The model projects Missouri by 6.9 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Texas A&M lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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