Redshirt
Matchup preview

Washington vs Oregon

Washington visit Oregon in Week 13. The model favors Oregon by 14. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
20%
80%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
ORE -15.5
Total (O/U)
54.5
Favorite
ORE
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#27SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#5
#21FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#4
1866EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2071
0.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.4.3%
WashingtonOregonsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Oregon lead 7-5
Oregon have won the last 2
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
26-14
Oregon
at Washington
2024
49-21
Oregon
at Oregon
2023
36-33
Washington
at Washington
2023
34-31
Washington
neutral site
2022
37-34
Washington
at Oregon
2021
26-16
Oregon
at Washington
2019
35-31
Oregon
at Washington
2018
30-27
Oregon
at Oregon
2017
38-3
Washington
at Washington
2016
70-21
Washington
at Oregon
2015
26-20
Oregon
at Washington
2014
45-20
Oregon
at Oregon
More Week 13 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Washington vs Oregon game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington vs Oregon market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Washington and Oregon play?

Week 13 of 2026, on Nov 28, 2026 at Oregon.

Who is favored?

The model projects Oregon by 14 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Oregon lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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