Oregon vs USC
Oregon visit USC in Week 4. The model favors Oregon by 0.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ makes this a clear road-team edge: Oregon rates 29.2 (rank 2) against USC's 17.7 (rank 12), and the model projects Oregon by 9.1 with a 71% win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing USC at +5.5 and implying a 63% Oregon win chance, a 8-point gap in win probability and roughly 3.6 points of margin the model does not see in the line. The total sits at 58.5.
The unit ranks explain the separation. Oregon pairs the #1 offense with the #2 defense, while USC leans on a #6 offense dragged down by a #28 defense. That mismatch is the model's case for a wider number than the market posts, and the series reinforces it: Oregon holds a 5-1 edge and won the 2025 meeting 42-27.
Season-long context favors Oregon at every layer: 9.3 projected wins, 75.4% Playoff odds and a 12.5% title probability against a 10.3% market price. USC projects to 7.5 wins, 23.7% Playoff odds and 2% to win it all, richer than its 1.5% market title price. The read is consistent from single game to full season, with the market shading toward USC relative to the model.
The model likes Oregon harder than the market does, with the ratings gap, unit ranks and series all pointing the same way.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oregon's win price; USC's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oregon is favored, below it USC is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oregon vs USC game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oregon vs USC market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oregon and USC play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at USC.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon by 0.4 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oregon lead 5-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →