Boise State vs Oregon
Boise State visit Oregon in Week 1. The model favors Oregon by 19.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Oregon rates 29.2 (rank 2) against Boise State at 5.1 (rank 50), and the model translates that gap into a 95% Oregon win probability with a projected margin of 26.5 points. The consensus line across two books sits at Oregon -24.5 with a total of 51.5, implying 93%. On the ProphetX exchange, Oregon is offered at -1850 (95%) and Boise State at +1400 (7%). Model and market align closely, with the model a shade more confident and pricing a margin two points beyond the spread.
The unit ratings reinforce the direction: Oregon ranks first on offense and second on defense, while Boise State sits 49th and 51st. The series offers the only counterweight, tied 1-1, with the 2024 meeting decided by a field goal as Oregon won 37-34. That result is the case for the total near 51.5 and for a contract priced short of the model's number.
Season simulations keep the two on separate tiers: Boise State projects to 6.9 wins with an 8.1% Playoff chance and 0.1% title equity, against Oregon's 9.3 wins, 75.6% Playoff odds and 11.9% title probability, the latter matching the 11% market read almost exactly.
Model and market agree on a heavy Oregon favorite, with the 26.5-point projection edging past the -24.5 spread and the 2024 three-point result the lone caveat.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Boise State's win price; Oregon's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Boise State is favored, below it Oregon is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Boise State vs Oregon game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Boise State vs Oregon market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Boise State and Oregon play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Oregon.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon by 19.9 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →