Northwestern vs Oregon
Northwestern visit Oregon in Week 9. The model favors Oregon by 5.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market both favor Oregon, but by different degrees. SP+ rates Oregon 17 (12th) against Northwestern's 13.7 (20th), a 3.3-point edge that projects to Oregon by 5.7 and a 64% win probability. The consensus line sits at Oregon -3.5 with a 47.5 total, implying 58%, while ProphetX offers Oregon at -162, or 62%. The model is the most bullish read on Oregon on the board, with roughly two points of daylight between its projected margin and the spread.
Unit ranks explain the lean. Oregon's defense ranks 11th, the strongest number in the matchup, against a Northwestern offense at 31st. The offenses sit close together (Oregon 28th, Northwestern 31st), and Northwestern's defense (26th) grades ahead of its own attack. Results cut the other way: Northwestern enters 6-1 with wins over Penn State 34-13 and Colorado 41-7, while Oregon is 4-3 with losses at Illinois 10-21 and to UCLA 15-17.
The lone series meeting, a 34-14 Oregon win in 2025, aligns with the ratings rather than the two resumes. The season simulations split as well: Northwestern projects to 8.5 wins and an 18.2% Playoff chance, Oregon to 6.9 wins and 14.9%.
The model leans Oregon harder than the market, and the series backs it, but Northwestern's 6-1 resume is the counterweight the ratings ignore.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Northwestern's win price; Oregon's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Northwestern is favored, below it Oregon is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Northwestern vs Oregon game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Northwestern vs Oregon market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Northwestern and Oregon play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Oregon.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oregon by 5.7 (64% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oregon lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →