UTEP vs Oklahoma
UTEP visit Oklahoma in Week 1. The model favors Oklahoma by 39.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in the same place. SP+ separates these teams by 38.1 rating points, Oklahoma at 18.8 (11th) against UTEP at -19.3 (127th), and pins the projected margin at 40.5. Both the model and the consensus of two books put Oklahoma at 99% and UTEP at 1%. The only daylight is the number itself: the market sets Oklahoma -41.5, a point past the model's 40.5 projection, with the total at 51.5.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Oklahoma's defense grades 8th and its offense 25th; UTEP counters with the 125th offense and 115th defense, a mismatch on both sides of the ball. The limited series backs the ratings, with Oklahoma 2-0 all time and a 45-13 result in the last meeting in 2022, a 32-point margin that sits below the current spread and projection.
The season simulations frame the stakes. Across 10,000 runs UTEP projects to 3.7 wins with 0% Playoff and 0% title equity, while Oklahoma projects to 7.2 wins, 27% to reach the Playoff and 2.1% to win it. The market prices that title chance slightly richer at 2.5%, a modest 0.4-point premium over the model.
Model and market agree at 99%, the only debate is whether Oklahoma covers 40.5 or the market's steeper 41.5.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UTEP's win price; Oklahoma's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UTEP is favored, below it Oklahoma is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UTEP vs Oklahoma game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UTEP vs Oklahoma market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UTEP and Oklahoma play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Oklahoma.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oklahoma by 39.7 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Oklahoma lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →