Oklahoma vs Georgia
Oklahoma visit Georgia in Week 4. The model favors Georgia by 13. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market read this game the same way. SP+ separates the sides by 10.6 points, rating Georgia 28.2 (second) against Oklahoma 17.6 (16th), and projects Georgia by 13. The consensus line sits a tick heavier at Georgia -14 with a 44.8 total. Win probabilities cluster tightly: the model gives Georgia 78%, the two-book market 80%. The ProphetX exchange prices the favorite harder still, Georgia -550 for an 85% implied read against Oklahoma +495 at 17%.
Unit ranks explain the gap without contradicting it. Georgia pairs the second offense with the third defense, a balanced profile. Oklahoma answers with the second-ranked defense but only the 47th offense, the split the projected two-score margin reflects. Season form fits: Georgia has won all three, 63-3, 70-20, and 45-17 at Arkansas, while Oklahoma sits at a 51-0 and 14-6 pair around a 10-17 loss at Michigan.
The series is thin, Georgia 1-0, with the only prior meeting the 54-48 result in 2017. The longer view frames the mismatch: Georgia projects 9.5 wins with 72.5% Playoff odds and an 11% title number against a 11.6% market read, while Oklahoma projects 6.6 wins, 16% to reach the Playoff and 1.5% to win it versus 0.6% priced in.
Model and market align on Georgia by two scores, and the exchange prices it even steeper at 85%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oklahoma's win price; Georgia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oklahoma is favored, below it Georgia is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oklahoma vs Georgia game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oklahoma vs Georgia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oklahoma and Georgia play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Georgia.
Who is favored?
The model projects Georgia by 13 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Georgia lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →