Miami vs Stanford
Miami visit Stanford in Week 1. The model favors Miami by 28.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Miami rates 22 (seventh nationally) against Stanford at -2.3 (79th), a gap that projects Miami by 21.9 points. The model lands Miami at 91 percent, the two-book consensus sits slightly firmer at 93 percent on a 24.5 spread, and the ProphetX exchange stretches furthest at 96 percent (Miami -2700). All three signals point one direction, with the exchange the richest of the set and the total posted at 48.5.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Miami pairs the 12th offense with the seventh defense, while Stanford carries the 94th offense and 56th defense, so the edge shows on both sides of the ball. Series history reinforces it: Miami is 1-0 all time and took the 2025 meeting 42-7, the only prior data point and a lopsided one.
Season-long numbers keep the teams far apart. Miami projects to 9.1 wins with a 56.3 percent Playoff probability and a 5.1 percent title share, below the market's 7.9 percent. Stanford projects to 4.9 wins and 0.6 percent Playoff odds, and opened with a 37-27 win over Hawai'i. That result shows a functional offense but does not close a 24-plus point gap.
Model, consensus and exchange all stack Miami between 91 and 96 percent, with the exchange pricing the least value.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami's win price; Stanford's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami is favored, below it Stanford is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Miami vs Stanford game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami vs Stanford market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Miami and Stanford play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Stanford.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami by 28.2 (96% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →