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Matchup preview

Miami vs North Carolina

Miami visit North Carolina in Week 9. The model favors Miami by 18.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
87%
13%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
MIA -13.8
Total (O/U)
53
Favorite
MIA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Miami99%+7 ptsvsNorth Carolina1%-7 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Miami favoredNorth Carolina favoredOct 17Oct 20Oct 23Oct 26Oct 29Nov 1

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami's win price; North Carolina's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami is favored, below it North Carolina is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#5SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#58
#5FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#91
2014EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1320
8.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
MiamiNorth Carolinasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
North Carolina lead 7-3
North Carolina have won the last 5
20142023
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2023
41-31
North Carolina
at North Carolina
2022
27-24
North Carolina
at Miami
2021
45-42
North Carolina
at North Carolina
2020
62-26
North Carolina
at Miami
2019
28-25
North Carolina
at North Carolina
2018
47-10
Miami
at Miami
2017
24-19
Miami
at North Carolina
2016
20-13
North Carolina
at Miami
2015
59-21
North Carolina
at North Carolina
2014
47-20
Miami
at Miami
More Week 9 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Miami vs North Carolina game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami vs North Carolina market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Miami and North Carolina play?

Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at North Carolina.

Who is favored?

The model projects Miami by 18.6 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

North Carolina lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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