Pittsburgh vs Miami
Pittsburgh visit Miami in Week 8. The model favors Miami by 19.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market are reading this game the same way. SP+ rates Miami 25.3 (third) against Pittsburgh's 9.4 (37th), projecting Miami by 18.3 with an 87% win probability. The consensus line of Miami -19.5 implies 88%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Miami -1350 (93%) versus Pittsburgh +1100 (8%). A total of 48.8 and a margin near three scores leave the two sources separated by barely a point, so the disagreement to exploit here is thin.
The unit splits explain the gap. Miami grades first in offense and 10th in defense; Pittsburgh sits 51st on offense and 27th on defense, its stronger side. Series history reinforces the lean: Miami holds a 7-3 edge and took the 2025 meeting 38-7, matching the direction the ratings point.
Resumes add texture without closing the distance. Miami is 6-0, including wins at Clemson 41-13 and over Florida State 43-35. Pittsburgh is 5-2 with narrow results, a 12-7 edge over UCF and losses to North Carolina 21-17 and at Boston College 27-21. Simulations give Miami 10.5 projected wins and 83% Playoff odds against Pittsburgh's 7.6 and 5.1%.
Model, consensus line and exchange all converge on Miami by roughly three scores, with little edge left to find.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Pittsburgh's win price; Miami's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Pittsburgh is favored, below it Miami is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Pittsburgh vs Miami game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Pittsburgh vs Miami market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Pittsburgh and Miami play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Miami.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami by 19.2 (88% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →