Florida State vs Miami
Florida State visit Miami in Week 7. The model favors Miami by 21.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit close on direction but differ on degree. SP+ rates Miami 27.8 (rank 4) against Florida State at 5.8 (rank 53), a 22-point ratings chasm that projects Miami by 24.4. The consensus line of Miami -21.5 shaves nearly three points off that figure, so the model sees more separation than the two books do. Win probabilities converge tightly: 93% model, 90% market-implied, and 93% on the ProphetX exchange, where Florida State trades at +1100 for an 8% implied price.
The unit splits frame the gap. Miami pairs the #3 offense with the #5 defense; Florida State brings a #35 offense and a #76 defense, the clear soft spot. Season form reinforces it: Miami is unbeaten with wins at Clemson 41-13 and at Wake Forest 33-20, while Florida State has dropped three, including 20-44 at Louisville and 36-50 at Alabama. The series is even at 6-6, and Miami took the 2025 meeting 28-22, a reminder the rivalry has produced tighter margins than this spread implies.
Season-long, the simulation gives Miami 10.5 wins and 85.6% Playoff odds against Florida State's 5.9 wins and 0.5%, and the total sits at 56.5.
Model, market, and exchange all price Miami near 93%, with SP+ projecting a 24.4-point edge against a slightly shorter -21.5 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida State's win price; Miami's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida State is favored, below it Miami is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida State vs Miami game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida State vs Miami market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida State and Miami play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Miami.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami by 21.3 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →