Miami vs Wake Forest
Miami visit Wake Forest in Week 3. The model favors Miami by 17.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Miami fourth at 25.6 against Wake Forest's 62nd-ranked 3.4, a 22.2-point gap that projects Miami by 19.8. The market barely blinks: consensus sets Wake Forest at +20.5 with a 56.3 total, and the implied win probabilities (Miami 89%, Wake Forest 11%) sit right on top of the model's 88/12 split. The ProphetX exchange leans even harder, pricing Miami at -1400 (93%) versus Wake Forest at +1250 (7%). There is no daylight between model and market here.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Miami pairs the #10 offense with the #3 defense, while Wake Forest carries the #79 offense and a #47 defense. Miami's results back the rating: 45-6 at Stanford and 77-7 over Florida A&M. Wake Forest is 2-0 but by thinner cuts, 38-16 over Akron and 38-36 at Purdue. The lone series meeting, Miami 42-14 in 2024, fits the same script.
Season simulations frame the stakes: Miami projects 9.6 wins with a 67.4% Playoff chance and 7.3% title equity against 9.8% market title odds, while Wake Forest sits at 6.6 wins, 1.8% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it. Every input points the same direction.
Model, consensus line, and exchange all read this the same way: a heavy Miami favorite backed by a 22.2-point ratings edge.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami's win price; Wake Forest's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami is favored, below it Wake Forest is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Miami vs Wake Forest game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami vs Wake Forest market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Miami and Wake Forest play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 18, 2026 at Wake Forest.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami by 17.2 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →