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Matchup preview

Virginia Tech vs Miami

Virginia Tech visit Miami in Week 12. The model favors Miami by 13.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
21%
79%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
MIA -16.5
Total (O/U)
56.5
Favorite
MIA
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#28SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#7
#71FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#5
1382EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2014
0.8%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.9.9%
Virginia TechMiamisolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Miami lead 9-2
Miami have won the last 5
20152025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
34-17
Miami
at Virginia Tech
2024
38-34
Miami
at Miami
2022
20-14
Miami
at Virginia Tech
2021
38-26
Miami
at Miami
2020
25-24
Miami
at Virginia Tech
2019
42-35
Virginia Tech
at Miami
2018
38-14
Miami
at Virginia Tech
2017
28-10
Miami
at Miami
2016
37-16
Virginia Tech
at Virginia Tech
2015
30-20
Miami
at Miami
2014
30-6
Miami
at Virginia Tech
More Week 12 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Virginia Tech vs Miami game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Virginia Tech vs Miami market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Virginia Tech and Miami play?

Week 12 of 2026, on Nov 21, 2026 at Miami.

Who is favored?

The model projects Miami by 13.2 (79% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Miami lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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