Central Michigan vs Miami
Central Michigan visit Miami in Week 4. The model favors Miami by 40.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market read this one identically: SP+ gives Miami a 99% win probability and projects a 40.5-point margin, while the two-book consensus prices Miami at -41.2, a near-perfect overlap. The ratings gap is the story. Miami sits 7th at 23.2 with the #9 offense and #7 defense; Central Michigan ranks 116th at -14.9, carrying the #128 offense and #91 defense. A 38.1-point rating spread leaves the Chippewas at 1% by both the model and the market, with the total set at 53.5.
Season context reinforces the separation. Miami has posted 45-6 at Stanford, 77-7 over Florida A&M, and 33-20 at Wake Forest. Central Michigan opened with a 7-38 loss at New Mexico before edging Colgate 13-10 and handling Wyoming 24-10. The simulation splits them further: Miami projects 9.7 wins with a 64% Playoff chance and 5.7% title odds against a 9.9% market number, while Central Michigan projects 6.1 wins and 0.1% Playoff odds. Series history is thin, a single 2019 meeting Miami won 17-12, offering little to offset a gap this wide.
The only live question is margin: whether Miami covers 41 rather than whether it wins.
Model and market lock arm in arm on Miami near 99%, leaving margin against a 41-point line as the sole tradable question.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Central Michigan's win price; Miami's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Central Michigan is favored, below it Miami is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Central Michigan vs Miami game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Central Michigan vs Miami market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Central Michigan and Miami play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Miami.
Who is favored?
The model projects Miami by 40.5 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Miami lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →