Matchup preview
Fresno State vs USC
Fresno State visit USC in Week 1. The model favors USC by 17.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Win probability
Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
USC -23
Total (O/U)
25.8
Favorite
USC
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
8%
92%
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
#66SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#16
#85FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#13
1548EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1871
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.1.4%
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
USC lead 3-0
USC have won the last 3
20142022
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
When do Fresno State and USC play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at USC.
Who is favored?
The model projects USC by 17.5 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
USC lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.