New Mexico State vs Sam Houston
New Mexico State visit Sam Houston in Week 8. The model favors New Mexico State by 2.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a coin flip: New Mexico State at -14.5 (124th) sits just ahead of Sam Houston at -16.9 (127th), a 2.4-point ratings gap that produces a 50-50 win probability and a projected margin of zero. The market leans the other way, pricing Sam Houston at +3 and handing New Mexico State a 57% implied edge against the model's dead-even read. That is the central disagreement: the model sees two interchangeable teams, while the two-book consensus gives the road side a field goal of respect.
The unit ranks explain the gridlock. New Mexico State's offense (122) and defense (109) grade out marginally better than Sam Houston's offense (133) and defense (110), consistent with the thin ratings gap. Season form tilts toward the visitor as well: New Mexico State has two wins, including 34-13 over Western Kentucky, while Sam Houston carries one win and lost to that same Western Kentucky side 3-16. The Bearkats have scored three points in three of their games, and the total sits at 46.8.
Series history favors New Mexico State 2-1, and the last meeting in 2025 was a 37-10 rout. Projected win totals are modest on both sides, 4.5 for New Mexico State and 3.5 for Sam Houston, with neither given any Playoff or title equity across the 10,000-run simulation.
A model coin flip the market nudges toward New Mexico State, whose form and 37-10 series history back the road price.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as New Mexico State's win price; Sam Houston's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line New Mexico State is favored, below it Sam Houston is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the New Mexico State vs Sam Houston game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the New Mexico State vs Sam Houston market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do New Mexico State and Sam Houston play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 22, 2026 at Sam Houston.
Who is favored?
The model projects New Mexico State by 2.2 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
New Mexico State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →