Sam Houston vs Troy
Sam Houston visit Troy in Week 1. The model favors Troy by 12.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear mismatch. Troy grades out at -8 (rank 97) against Sam Houston at -26 (rank 134), an 18-point ratings gap that the model converts into a projected Troy margin of 20.4 points and an 89% win probability. The unit splits reinforce the edge across the board: Troy's offense (#94) and defense (#97) both sit well ahead of Sam Houston's offense (#131) and defense (#134), leaving the visitor without an obvious lever to pull.
The market is more cautious than the model. The consensus line has Troy -16.5 with a total of 54.3, implying an 84% home win, while the ProphetX exchange prices Troy at -710 (88%) and Sam Houston at +630 (14%). That leaves the model's projected margin nearly four points clear of the spread, a gap traders leaning Troy will note. Season simulations point the same direction: Troy projects to 6.8 wins with a 1.8% Playoff chance, against 3.6 wins and 0% for Sam Houston.
The model likes Troy by 20.4 and prices it at 89%, running four points ahead of a -16.5 market that already leans hard home.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Sam Houston's win price; Troy's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Sam Houston is favored, below it Troy is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Sam Houston vs Troy game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Sam Houston vs Troy market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Sam Houston and Troy play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Troy.
Who is favored?
The model projects Troy by 12.3 (77% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →