Sam Houston vs Texas Tech
Sam Houston visit Texas Tech in Week 4. The model favors Texas Tech by 37.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in the same place with only minor daylight between them. SP+ rates Texas Tech at 18.5 (13th) against Sam Houston's -16.3 (121st), a gap of roughly 34.8 points that maps almost exactly onto the consensus line of Texas Tech -34.5. The model pushes slightly further, projecting a 37.2-point margin and a 99% win probability versus the market's 98%. Unit ranks reinforce the mismatch: Texas Tech grades 12th on offense and 16th on defense, while Sam Houston sits 118th on both sides.
Season form tracks the ratings. Texas Tech is unbeaten, opening 33-10 over Abilene Christian before tighter wins at Oregon State (35-24) and over Houston (28-26). Sam Houston has split points against weaker slates: losses at Troy (21-24) and to Tulsa (17-23), then a 59-0 result over Nicholls. The lone series meeting, a 59-45 Texas Tech win in 2015, adds little beyond a high-scoring precedent that sits near the 55.3 total.
The simulations frame the stakes: Texas Tech projects 9.4 wins with 41.8% Playoff and 2.8% title probability, against a 1% market title price, while Sam Houston projects 4.6 wins and 0% on both. The debate is margin, not outcome, and the model reads a wider spread than the market posts.
Model and market agree Texas Tech wins going away; the only edge is a 37.2-point projection sitting above the -34.5 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Sam Houston's win price; Texas Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Sam Houston is favored, below it Texas Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Sam Houston vs Texas Tech game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Sam Houston vs Texas Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Sam Houston and Texas Tech play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Texas Tech.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas Tech by 37.2 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Texas Tech lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →