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Matchup preview

Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State

Sam Houston visit Jacksonville State in Week 10. The model favors Jacksonville State by 17.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
14%
86%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
JVST -16.5
Total (O/U)
45.8
Favorite
JVST
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Sam Houston14%-7 ptsvsJacksonville State86%+7 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sam Houston favoredJacksonville State favoredOct 27Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Sam Houston's win price; Jacksonville State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Sam Houston is favored, below it Jacksonville State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#129SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#85
#135FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#100
994EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1491
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Sam HoustonJacksonville Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Jacksonville State lead 4-2
Jacksonville State have won the last 3
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
29-27
Jacksonville State
neutral site
2024
21-11
Jacksonville State
at Jacksonville State
2023
35-28
Jacksonville State
at Sam Houston
2021
42-7
Sam Houston
at Sam Houston
2015
62-10
Jacksonville State
at Jacksonville State
2014
37-26
Sam Houston
at Jacksonville State
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Sam Houston and Jacksonville State play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at Jacksonville State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Jacksonville State by 17.8 (86% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Jacksonville State lead 4-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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