Tulsa vs Sam Houston
Tulsa visit Sam Houston in Week 2. The model favors Tulsa by 12.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Tulsa sits at -2.3 (rank 75), Sam Houston at -21.5 (rank 129), a gap that yields a projected Tulsa margin of 16.8 points and an 85% win probability. The consensus line across two books lands at Sam Houston +13.8 with a 51.5 total, implying 80% for Tulsa. ProphetX prices Tulsa at -520 (84%) against Sam Houston +460 (18%), so exchange, market, and model cluster tightly.
Unit ranks reinforce the divide. Tulsa grades #78 on offense and #83 on defense; Sam Houston sits #124 and #127. Early results add texture: Tulsa opened with a 24-10 win over Oklahoma State, while Sam Houston fell 21-24 at Troy. Simulations project Tulsa to 7.5 wins with a 3.1% Playoff chance, Sam Houston to 3.9 wins with no Playoff path and neither team carrying title odds.
Model, market, and exchange all favor Tulsa near 80 to 85%; the only edge sits in the gap between the 16.8 projection and the 13.8 line.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulsa's win price; Sam Houston's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulsa is favored, below it Sam Houston is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulsa vs Sam Houston game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulsa vs Sam Houston market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulsa and Sam Houston play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Sam Houston.
Who is favored?
The model projects Tulsa by 12.7 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →