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Matchup preview

Sam Houston vs Liberty

Sam Houston visit Liberty in Week 6. The model favors Liberty by 27.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
5%
95%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Liberty rates 2.5 (62nd) against Sam Houston's minus 14.1 (117th), a 16.6-point gap that drives a projected Liberty margin of 19 and an 88 percent win probability. The market is a touch softer, pricing Liberty minus 13.7 with a 52.5 total and an 80 percent implied win probability. That leaves the model roughly five points and eight percentage points more committed to the favorite than the consensus of the two books, the clearest edge on the board.

The unit ranks back the spread. Liberty grades out at 63rd on offense and 54th on defense, while Sam Houston sits 113th and 112th, so neither side of the ball offers the underdog a lever. Season form points the same direction: Liberty is 4-1 with wins by 36 over Ball State and 17 at Coastal Carolina, whereas Sam Houston is 1-3, its lone win a 59-0 blanking of Nicholls between losses to Troy, Tulsa and a 14-49 result at Texas Tech.

The series adds a flicker of doubt. It stands 1-1, and the last meeting in 2024 went to Sam Houston 20-18. The simulations still separate them sharply: Liberty projects to 9.3 wins with an 8.9 percent Playoff chance, Sam Houston to 4.6 wins and 0 percent.

The model backs Liberty harder than the market, and the ratings gap, unit ranks and season form all agree.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
LIB -13.5
Total (O/U)
52.8
Favorite
LIB
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#129SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#45
#135FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#104
994EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1441
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
Sam HoustonLibertysolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20232024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
20-18
Sam Houston
at Sam Houston
2023
21-16
Liberty
at Liberty
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Sam Houston vs Liberty game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Sam Houston vs Liberty market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Sam Houston and Liberty play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 8, 2026 at Liberty.

Who is favored?

The model projects Liberty by 27.9 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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