Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston
Western Kentucky visit Sam Houston in Week 7. The model favors Western Kentucky by 4.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market read this one almost identically. SP+ rates Western Kentucky at -13 (117th) against Sam Houston at -16.5 (125th), a 3.5-point ratings edge that translates to a projected Western Kentucky margin of 1.1 points and a 53% win probability. The consensus line across two books lands Sam Houston at +1.3 with a total of 53, pinning market-implied odds at the same 47/53 split. There is no disagreement to trade against here: both sides price a coin flip tilted narrowly toward the visitor.
The unit ranks explain the low projected margin. Western Kentucky pairs the 107th offense with the 120th defense; Sam Houston counters with the 120th offense and 119th defense. Neither profile stands out, which fits season projections of 4.7 wins for Western Kentucky and 4.1 for Sam Houston, both at 0% to reach the Playoff. Series history is one-sided: Western Kentucky holds a 3-0 edge and took the 2025 meeting 41-24.
Results add context the ratings already imply. Western Kentucky is 2-4, with blowout road losses at Georgia 20-70, Indiana 0-38 and Nevada 14-49, but home wins over Mercyhurst 52-7 and Missouri State 34-13. Sam Houston sits 1-4, its lone win 59-0 over Nicholls alongside a tight 21-24 loss at Troy and lopsided defeats at Texas Tech 14-49 and Liberty 3-35. Two struggling teams, with the edge marginal and home field the only real counterweight.
Model and market both price a near coin flip, leaning Western Kentucky by roughly a point behind a 3-0 series edge.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; Sam Houston's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it Sam Houston is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Western Kentucky and Sam Houston play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 15, 2026 at Sam Houston.
Who is favored?
The model projects Western Kentucky by 4.1 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Western Kentucky lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →