North Carolina vs Pittsburgh
North Carolina visit Pittsburgh in Week 6. The model favors Pittsburgh by 6.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a clear gap: Pittsburgh at 14.7 (20th) against North Carolina at 3 (60th), an 11.7-point ratings spread that drives an 80% model win probability and a projected Pittsburgh margin of 14.1. The market is far more cautious, pricing Pittsburgh at -3.7 with a 59% implied edge, and the ProphetX exchange sits near that at -170 (63%) against North Carolina +164 (38%). The model and the price diverge sharply here.
The unit ranks favor Pittsburgh across the board: offense 36th to North Carolina's 88th, defense 15th to 34th. Recent form tilts toward the model rather than the market: Pittsburgh is 5-0, including 35-33 at Virginia Tech and 12-7 over UCF, while North Carolina is 2-2 with losses of 20-28 to Clemson and 26-37 to Notre Dame.
The series leans North Carolina 7-3 historically, though Pittsburgh took the last meeting 34-24 in 2024. Season simulations widen the separation: Pittsburgh projects to 9.5 wins with a 28.8% Playoff chance, North Carolina to 5.3 wins at 0.5%.
Model and market split wide: SP+ backs Pittsburgh by double digits while the consensus line shades only 3.7.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Carolina's win price; Pittsburgh's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Carolina is favored, below it Pittsburgh is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Carolina vs Pittsburgh market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Carolina and Pittsburgh play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Pittsburgh.
Who is favored?
The model projects Pittsburgh by 6.6 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
North Carolina lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →