UCF vs Pittsburgh
UCF visit Pittsburgh in Week 2. The model favors Pittsburgh by 7.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market land in the same place on the top line: SP+ gives Pittsburgh a 66 percent win probability, and the consensus -7 line from two books implies the identical 66-34 split. The ratings support it, with Pittsburgh at 10.1 (32nd) against UCF at 5.9 (48th), a 4.2-point edge that translates to a projected Pittsburgh margin of 6.6, just inside the number on the board. The ProphetX exchange sits a shade richer on the favorite, pricing Pittsburgh at -240 (71 percent) versus UCF at +225 (31 percent).
The unit ranks frame where the game tilts. Pittsburgh's offense (22nd) faces a UCF defense (32nd) that is the Knights' stronger side, while UCF's offense (65th) draws a softer Pittsburgh defense (47th). Both teams enter off Week 1 routs, Pittsburgh 59-14 over Miami (OH) and UCF 73-6 over Bethune-Cookman, results that inflate confidence but say little at this level of opponent. A total of 57 reflects the offensive skew.
Season projections keep Pittsburgh ahead over the long run: 7.6 wins to UCF's 6.8, and a 9.7 percent Playoff chance against 4.8 percent. Title odds stay thin either way, Pittsburgh 0.4 percent by the model versus 0.7 percent on the market, UCF 0.1 percent. The series is even at 1-1, the last meeting a 35-34 Pittsburgh win in 2019.
Model and market agree on Pittsburgh at 66 percent, and a 4.2-rating edge backs the 6.6-point projected margin under the number.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCF's win price; Pittsburgh's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCF is favored, below it Pittsburgh is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCF vs Pittsburgh game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCF vs Pittsburgh market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCF and Pittsburgh play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Pittsburgh.
Who is favored?
The model projects Pittsburgh by 7.3 (67% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →