Miami (OH) vs Pittsburgh
Miami (OH) visit Pittsburgh in Week 1. The model favors Pittsburgh by 18.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by roughly ten points, rating Pittsburgh at 6.2 (rank 41) against Miami (OH) at -4 (rank 85), and the model converts that into a 78% Pittsburgh win probability with a projected margin of 12.6. The market sits firmer: the two-book consensus posts Pittsburgh -16.7 and an implied 84%, while ProphetX live offers push further to -700, an 88% price, against Miami (OH) at +610 (14%). Every gauge favors Pittsburgh, but the four-point spread between the model number and the market line marks a game the market prices more decisively than the ratings do.
The unit splits explain the gap. Pittsburgh's offense ranks #42 against Miami (OH)'s #112, the widest mismatch on the board, while the defenses sit nearly level at #54 and #53. Season simulations complicate the tidy favorite: across 10,000 runs Miami (OH) projects 7.7 wins to Pittsburgh's 6.7, with a 4.9% Playoff chance versus 5.5%, and both carry identical 0.7% market title odds. The single-game edge and the full-season profile point in different directions.
Model and market both back Pittsburgh, but the market's -16.7 runs four points past SP+'s 12.6 projection.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Miami (OH)'s win price; Pittsburgh's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Miami (OH) is favored, below it Pittsburgh is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Miami (OH) vs Pittsburgh game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Miami (OH) vs Pittsburgh market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Miami (OH) and Pittsburgh play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Pittsburgh.
Who is favored?
The model projects Pittsburgh by 18.8 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →